Minutes of East China Cold Rolling Conference in August-Will prices stabilize and rebound in September?
:  : Aug 30,2021

1. In the process of falling stainless steel prices, the recent stainless steel contracts performed exceptionally strong. After the monthly shift of the main contract, the 09 contract is about to enter the delivery month. The current warehouse receipts are only 16,000 tons, which is 27,000 tons lower than the high in mid-July. Under the support of low warehouse receipts, prices are easy to rise but hard to fall. As of Friday's close, the spread of stainless steel futures 2109 and 2110 contracts was as high as 540 yuan/ton, which was significantly wider than the 200-300 yuan/ton spread in the previous period. The strength of the current near-month contract trend may reflect to a certain extent that the stock market will be difficult to fall in the short term.

2. In terms of exports, judging from the July import and export data, affected by the epidemic, anti-dumping, soaring prices, rising costs, and many other factors, the export data in July fell from June to the previous month. There is feedback on the export orders of a downstream welded pipe company in August. Only one-tenth of the previous rate; the downstream export products industry has already experienced a stockpile of finished products. Although the prices of raw materials have risen, the prices have not risen. The current order volume is the same as in the fourth quarter of last year. But some people think that Christmas is going to be celebrated abroad, and it will get better after September.

 Summary: In the short term, stainless steel prices are supported by steel mill costs and raw materials. September is also the traditional peak season for stainless steel, and downstream demand will improve. The overall trend in September will be more volatile. In the medium and long term, we need to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the implementation of production restrictions and export tariff policies.

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